Scanning The Majors Archive

2006-06-19T15:57:00.001Z

Published: Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 6/14/06

For those looking for the proverbial smoking gun when it comes to performance-enhancing drugs and their use in major league baseball, Arizona Diamondback pitcher Jason Grimsley provided it last week.

Last Tuesday, 13 agents searched Grimsley's Arizona home following his admission he had used HGH (Human Growth Hormone), steroids and amphetamines. According to court documents, authorities tracked a package containing two "kits" of HGH -- about a season's worth -- that was delivered to Grimsley's house on April 19. He also failed a baseball drug test in 2003, the documents showed. Perhaps the biggest news to come out of this was that Grimsley named names…and lots of them.
MLB reacted to those documents by suspending Grimsley for 50 games on Monday. It was seemingly a moot point, as Grimsley was released by Arizona last Wednesday and being a generic major league reliever, no one is willing to take a chance on him.

The perception has always been that the big hulking hitters were the only ones using performance-enhancing drugs. The players summoned before Congress were the likes of Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco. You didn’t see a Jason Grimsley on the panel. No one worried about whether the middle relievers were bulking up. There were bigger fish to fry.

Grimsley’s troubles clarify the point that, most likely, a lot more big leaguers were using performance-enhancing drugs than previously thought. And with that…welcome to the Steroid Era.

Since we’ll never know definitively who was using and who wasn’t, how do you judge this era in a historical context? Do you just assume everyone was using and take it from there? Does Barry Bonds, the vortex of performance-enhancing drug suspicion, suddenly get recognized as the best player of his generation regardless of whether he used or not? Is Greg Maddux’s performance in the mid 90’s to the first part of this decade even more remarkable, or do you assume he used also? When it comes to Hall of Fame time, do the voters just decide to ignore the allegations and vote based on a player’s on-field performance, regardless of whether they had “help”?

That’s the crux of the problem with MLB’s steroid policy. They merely announce suspensions for use of performance-enhancing drugs without identifying the substance. In other sports, an athlete can come up with a dirty test that is explained away by using a supplement and not knowing everything that is in it or by using cold medicine and not realizing it contained an illegal substance. These suspensions don’t do anything to leave the fans feeling as though what they are watching is legit. It just creates more questions than answers.

While it may seem unfair that most people in the private sector who fail a drug test don’t have their results announced publicly by the company, millions of people don’t pay good money to watch Ralph working security at a strip mall. If Ralph is suddenly gone, not many people (if any), notice. Do baseball fans have the right to know? Or does someone’s right to privacy take precedence?

This isn’t a “Think of the Children” stance, but in order for baseball to move past this, it has to come completely clean to show that they are…well, completely clean. The thought is that sometime in the next few weeks, the names Grimsley gave up will be leaked. Then baseball will have a huge problem on their hands, as Commissioner Bud Selig would have to decide whether to suspend a large number of players in the middle of the season or conduct an investigation. The guess is that he will go with the latter, rightfully citing the need to have the facts. Conveniently enough, though, those facts will probably surface in the off-season, allowing teams the time to make the proper adjustments to the roster to compensate for losing a number of players.

Both on and off the field, this summer should be an intriguing one in baseball.

2006-06-19T15:57:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Scanning the Majors: 6/7/06 Edition

Dodger GM Ned Colletti, to his credit, hasn’t been reluctant to bring up some of the farm system’s top prospects to fill in for the slew of players that have been injured so far this season. Manager Grady Little also deserves a ton of credit, as he does not leave them to rot on the bench and take the “proven veterans” path. This is an advantage Colletti has over previous GM Paul Depodesta, as when he went to the cupboard, he was met by the likes of Jason Repko.

Little has also displayed the courage to throw the youngsters right into the lineup rather than making them sit a few days. So far, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, Willie Aybar, Jonathan Broxton and recently, Matt Kemp, haven’t disappointed. Joel Guzman, who is compared favorably to former Texas Ranger slugger Juan Gonzalez, was called up last week to play third base when Aybar was shifted to second base to fill in for the injured Jeff Kent. Guzman will probably land at a corner OF position next season, but he will be given the bulk of time at third for now…

The emergence of the young players have forced the Dodgers to make some tough decisions about the likes of Cesar Izturis, Ricky Ledee, Bill Mueller and Dioner Navarro once they return from injury. It has also clouded the futures of Kenny Lofton and Jose Cruz Jr., whose salaries make it tough to justify benching them. Look for at least one of them to be moved within the next few weeks for some starting rotation or bullpen help…

The reason for the need for pitching help is the return to Earth by Brett Tomko and the imminent return from Aaron Sele. The two of these continuing to keep doing what they are doing is as likely as Torosian hanging out at a sit-in with Cindy Sheehan. The hope was that uberprospect Chad Billingsley would be ready by midseason, but his recent performances at Las Vegas has shown he’d benefit from a little more time at AAA. He has averaged four walks per nine innings and will need to tighten that up before getting the call…

Odalis Perez has replaced Jae Seo in the starting rotation. Seo added a cut fastball and split-finger after being sent to AAA last season, but those pitches have seemingly abandoned him this year. Seo’s biggest problem has been the home run bug, as he has allowed 11 so far this year after allowing 9 all of last season. Sending him back to Vegas would be drastic, as sending a pitcher to Vegas to solve a home run problem is like sending a drug addict to hang out with Courtney Love for a month. The cozy confines of Chavez Ravine in a middle relief role is much more suitable…

Closer Eric Gagne returned on Friday night, with stadium radar guns clocking him at 94 MPH, which is probably a little generous. His location was a little off, which can be expected due to the layoff and the Nile-like flow of adrenaline. But the beauty of Gagne has always been his changeup and his ability to spot it. He won’t average 14 K/9 IP like he did in his hay day, but he’ll still be an upper echelon closer…

If Gagne does walk next year, Broxton is positioning himself to take over the closer’s role. Thus far, in 19 1/3 innings, Broxton has an ERA of 0.93 with 26 K’s and a WHIP of 1.03. Hitters are batting .155 off of him, though the nine walks he has allowed shows there’s still room for improvement. Broxton, like Gagne, is a former starter who has the ability to throw 2-3 innings at a time…

Happy Birthday to Scanwife, who turns 30 today. I’ll let her keep saying she’s 29 if she wants, but unless she’s a Dominican shortstop, saying she’s a year younger than she is doesn’t really help any.

By John Scanlan

2006-06-19T15:47:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 5/31/06 Edition

“It’s not my fault”

Imagine Joe Torre or Tony LaRussa uttering this after their team lost a game or were enduring a tough losing streak.

Confronted with their worst start (15-33) since 1954, Pittsburgh Pirate manager Jim Tracy’s reaction to adversity was to make sure it was known publicly that he is not to blame.

"I can't catch it, I can't throw it and I can't hit it," Tracy said last Friday. "That's not my job. I'm not allowed to do that. My job is to get them in a position to where the stage is set and the opportunity is there for them to carry it out, finish the job and win…I know as a manager there are only so many things I can do," Tracy added, "I try to go home and every night and look in the mirror and ask myself if I did everything I could to do to give us a chance to win.”

Similarly, last season, Tracy blamed everyone but himself for the Dodgers’ woes as they had the second worst season since the franchise moved to L.A. He never looked at himself when he put Jason Phillips at 1B…and batted him in the cleanup spot. Nor did he do so when he chose to hit Oscar Robles in the 3rd spot on a number of occasions. He stubbornly kept Cesar Izturis in the leadoff spot, even though he’s didn’t have the ability to get on base that you look for from a leadoff man. Tracy had no problem taking the credit when the team or a particular player did well but wasn’t above throwing a player under the bus when they weren’t.

Tracy maintains he has done everything he could do to help the Pirates win, but his actions have shown that he has done anything but that, as he is doing a lot of the same things that he did in Los Angeles. He’s playing inferior talent because they are “proven” veterans over younger, more talented players. The biggest example of this is Tracy regularly sitting arguably the team’s 2nd best hitter, Craig Wilson (.288/.369/.538) in favor of Jeromy Burnitz (.234/.283/.411). When 1B Sean Casey went down, it appeared Wilson would slide right in to take his spot. Not so fast, as Tracy chose to move catcher Ryan Doumit (.208/.278/.438) to 1B. When Doumit had difficulty handling first, Tracy, you guessed it, publicly criticized him. Doumit took it in stride, but as a young player, what other recourse did he have?

In the spirit of Izturis, he stubbornly insisted on keeping rookie Chris Duffy in the leadoff spot, despite Duffy being allergic to taking ball four. Tracy tried to change Duffy’s approach, who hit .341/.385/.429 after being called up last season and certainly would have been useful in the lower part of the lineup. Trying Tracy’s way, Duffy started the season hitting .193/.254/.275 before being sent to the minors. Duffy, thus far, has refused to report, saying he shouldn’t be sent down. He feels Tracy set him up for failure by forcing him to change his approach at the plate in spring training.

Duffy isn’t the only player Tracy and his staff has tried to force changes upon. Thinking his 8-2, 1.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP weren’t good enough last season, the decision was made to overhaul Duke’s mechanics. Despite the fact that Duke's delivery seemed to be near perfect a year ago, the left-hander said it was obvious his mechanics aren't the same as they were in 2005. "It's just not me out there," Duke said earlier this year, "I'm rushing through my mechanics.”

Tracy’s statement, whether true or not, should never have been aired out publicly. A manager who knowingly takes a job with a team in a rebuilding position has to know that there will be ups and downs. Throwing blame at young players to protect yourself isn’t a way to develop players. It also points out the pitfalls of branding someone a winning manager because their team wins games. Bob Brenly won a World Series as the manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001, but is he a winning manager for knowing that it was a pretty good idea to start Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling every five days? If a manager has talent and a little luck with team health, they’ll win in spite of whatever mistakes they make. The true ability of a manager is shown when having to overcome injuries or a lack of talent. Tracy hasn’t shown the ability to do either.

There are three approaches to managing a team: Manage to the team’s strengths, work with what you have and go through the motions, or force your system down a team’s throat. Guess which one works best, Jimbo.

Agree or disagree with John Scanlan? Let him know at scanman_33@sbcglobal.net.

2006-05-27T10:08:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Scanning the Majors: 5/24/06

This past weekend’s Freeway Series sweep of the Angels by the Dodgers shows the fickle nature of baseball.

A year ago, with the Dodgers reeling and the Angels on top of the AL West, everyone was ready to anoint Angel owner Arte Moreno as the new king of Southern California baseball.

That talk has died down pretty quickly of late…Even the biggest Nomar Garciaparra proponents have to be surprised by his .363/.426/.657 line since coming back from the DL. The questions were about his health and those could still manifest themselves. He won’t continue to perform at this level, but he won’t need to. He would be even more valuable if he played the OF or short, but that’s like asking for double frosting on a birthday cake…

Eric Gagne is due to go out on a rehab assignment sometime later this week or early next week. Fans should temper their expectations, as he won’t be able to pitch back-to-back days initially, if even at all this year. Hoping that he hits 95-96 MPH is probably unrealistic as well, but if he is able to spot all four of his pitches, he should still be effective. So please save the, “What’s wrong with Gagne? Is he healthy?” emails when he shows himself to be mortal…Gagne hits the free agent market this winter and some team is certainly going to take a chance on him and throw a big contract his way. Regardless of how he performs once he returns, is a one-inning pitcher fresh off of injury that has become the face of the franchise worth $10 million per year for 3-4 years? Or is it more sensible to use that money to address other needs? It will be interesting to see what direction GM Ned Colletti goes…

Against the Dodgers, opposing base runners are taking more liberties than the Bush administration, having only caught three runners stealing this year. While it is quick and easy to blame catchers Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin, the Dodger pitchers as a staff are pretty slow to the plate, averaging anywhere between 1.3 and 1.4 seconds. This is considered slow by major league standards and something pitching coach Rick Honeycutt needs to work on…

Watching Willie Aybar play 3B is as thrilling as any episode of “24”, but his bat has provided an unexpected boost to the Dodger lineup. It will be Bill Mueller’s job when he gets back from the disabled list, but Aybar is learning the OF in hopes of playing a super-sub type role…

Through Monday, every team in the NL West is at least 2 games above .500. After taking a beating last year, the division looks to be very competitive this year, although listening to a certain East Coast based sports network, the only division that matters is the AL East and the only thing happening baseball-wise out West is Barry Bonds pursuit of Babe Ruth…

If you are watching the aforementioned network, sandwiched between 10 minute packages about the Red Sox and Yankees, you’ll see a 30-second snippet about the Devil Rays with highlights of young superstar RF Jonny Gomes. Gomes (.281/.400/.621 with 14 HR and 37 RBI) and young starter Scott Kazmir (7-2, 2.39 ERA) will shed the idea that Tampa Bay only gets All-Stars by default.

Sorry, Lance Carter, the charade is up…Angels C Mike Napoli is a classic three outcomes player: He either strikes out, walks or gets an extra base hit. Players like that do have value, but are usually the victim of general managers who get caught up in looking at batting average and strikeouts. Such players are considered pariahs in baseball, but if front office types open their minds, they’ll find guys like this are very good complimentary players…Sorry for stepping on your shoes Salter, but congrats to Alhambra and Montebello on winning their first round CIF baseball games last Friday. It was the first wins for the Almont League in baseball in CIF play since 2000.

John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.net

2006-05-27T10:02:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, May 17, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 5/17/06 Edition

The first quarter of the season is just about done and it’s time to send out some first quarter report cards to the local teams.

Offense
Dodgers: A-

The Dodgers are tied for first (with Cincinnati) in the NL in runs scored with 196 through Sunday. A big reason is they are first in OBP with a .350 mark (further proof that BA is overrated, they are 8th at .264). Leading the way are 1B Nomar Garciaparra with a .416 OBP and J.D. Drew at .381 to go with his 7 HR and 27 RBI. SS Rafael Furcal and 2B Jeff Kent struggled mightily out of the gate and have started to hit like their former selves lately. There really hasn’t been a weak spot in the lineup thus far and when an injury has cropped up, they’ve have compensated with someone from the farm system or the bench.

Angels: D

The Angels are twelfth in the AL in runs scored with 164, which comes out to a little over 4 runs per game. They are dead last in OBP with a .301 mark and twelfth in slugging with a .385 mark, barely ahead of powerhouses Tampa Bay (.384) and Kansas City (.383). Vlad Guerrero is holding up his end of the deal (.356 OBP, 9 HR, 32 RBI), but nobody else on the team is having a season that even resembles anything close to good. Orlando Cabrera has a .325 OBP in the 2nd year of a regrettable 4-year, 32 million dollar deal.

Starting Pitching
Dodgers: B

The Dodger starters lead the NL in ERA at 3.70 and has a good WHIP of 1.28. The staff has been anchored by Brad Penny (3-1, 2.66 ERA), Derek Lowe (1-2, 2.98) and the surprising Brett Tomko (5-1, 2.88). Jae Seo and Odalis Perez has struggled, with Perez being replaced by the non-biodegradable Aaron Sele (2-0, 1.98). Super-prospect Chad Billingsley is just a phone call away at Vegas, so the Dodgers have some options should there be any further slip-ups.

Angels: D-

The Angel starters are tenth in ERA at a gruesome 5.12, but a decent WHIP of 1.33. Reigning Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon has been injured and unproductive (0-2. 7.07) and his replacements haven’t been much better. Free agent pickup Jeff Weaver has been terrible (1-6, 7.40) and there has been talk of his brother Jered taking his spot in the rotation. Kelvim Escobar (5-2, 3.46) and John Lackey (3-3, 3.61) have held their own, but the starters as a whole have been hurt by the home run ball (34 in 212 IP) and an inability to go deep into games (less than 6 IP per start).

Bullpen
Dodgers: F

Dodger fans cringe like Torosian listening to a Hillary Rodham Clinton speech when they see the bullpen gates swing open this season. The pen ERA is 4.80 and an ugly WHIP of 1.53. Danys Baez (2-2, 8 SV, 3.38) blew 4 straight save opportunities before manager Grady Little passed him over for Takashi Saito (3-2, 2.86) Monday night. Eric Gagne is slated to return later this month or early next month, but it still remains to be seen in what incarnation he’ll return. Will he be dominant or a shell of his former self? The Dodgers better pray for the former.

Angels: A-

Perhaps the Angels only saving grace this season has been their bullpen, which has an ERA of 3.28 and a terrific WHIP of 1.19. The reason manager Mike Scioscia has been so quick to yank his starters is that he knows the bullpen has been the only thing keeping them in games. Anchored by Frankie Rodriguez (10 SV, 2.25) and Scott Shields (1-2, 0.61), they have also received a significant contribution from Brendan Donnelly (2.95 ERA in 18 IP). There is some concern about Rodriguez holding up over the course of a season, but so far so good. J.C. Romero will be better than he has been (1-2, 6.60). If they could get any type of performance from their starters, the team could stand a chance with their anemic offense.

Defense
Dodgers: D

Furcal has struggled with the glove thus far (9 errors) and 3B Bill Mueller has had his own issues, making 8 before hitting the DL last week. The pitching staff has done a terrible job holding runners, having only caught 2 of 31 runners attempting to steal.

Angels: C

Cabrera has made 5 errors thus far and 3B Chone Figgins has committed 7. The OF has been stellar, only making 2 errors, both by Guerrero (I think they’ll forgive him). The running game has been held in check, allowing 17 steals in 27 chances.

In spite of their imperfections, the two local teams are still in contention due to their weak divisions. Time will tell if they’ll improve their grades and go to the head of the class or flunk out of their division races.

By John Scanlan

2006-05-27T09:59:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, May 10, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 5/10/06 Edition

Real or No Real?
There are a few teams that are off to some surprise starts, both good and bad. This week, we’ll examine if they are…Real…or No Real (I had to butcher the English language to make that work).

Colorado Rockies: 20-13 (thru 5/8), 1st place, 1 game lead in the NL West…Real (sorta)

It depends on your definition of real. In this column before the season started, I said the Rocks would surprise. By surprise, I thought they’d play .500 ball and improve greatly upon their 95-loss season from a year ago.

The amazing part is they’ve done it 1) without Todd Helton for a chunk of the season and 2) by going 11-5 on the road, where the Rockies have always had problems. Helton returned this past weekend from a mysterious stomach ailment and the team’s success in his absence gives them confidence that they can miss their best player and still do well.

It’s not like they’ve faced a cupcake schedule either, with only 8 of their games coming against teams with sub .500 records. Manager Clint Hurdle has done a good job of managing the pitching staff and letting his pitchers finish what they start, with Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis and Jason Jennings averaging roughly 6-7 innings per start.

However, these are the Rockies and while their young players are coming along well, things tend to get hectic in the Mile High city when summer rolls around. When the balls start flying out of the park and they’re fighting to survive 12-11 games, it will take a toll on this team and leave their tank empty come September. By hovering around .500 though, they’ll keep themselves in the NL West mix.

Detroit Tigers: 20-12, 2nd place, 2.5 GB Chicago in the AL Central…Real

Jim Leyland was brought in to try and revitalize a franchise that has been stagnant for the better part of the last 2 decades and so far, so good.

The Tigers have done it with some very solid starting pitching. Lefties Mike Maroth (4-2, 2.55), Nate Robertson (3-2, 3.25) and the media savvy Kenny Rogers (5-2) have held their own while highly touted youngsters Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander have improved steadily. Offensively, Magglio Ordonez is finally healthy and contributing and former Rule 5 pick 1B Chris Shelton started the season as if he were shot out of a cannon (.296 BA/.364 OBP/.661 SLG).

While the White Sox will be tough, the Tigers should stay in contention due to the solid pitching. However, to make a sustained run, Ordonez must remain healthy and Shelton must keep the gains he has made at the plate. The possibility of both happening remains to be seen.

Atlanta Braves: 13-18, 3rd place, 8 GB New York in the NL East…No Real

Every year, the Braves are dismissed quicker than Cindy Sheehan at a Toby Keith concert. This year, they have had to endure injuries to Chipper and Andruw Jones, as well as starting pitcher John Thomson. OF phenom Jeff Francoeur got off to a slow start and SP Tim Hudson looked very average. In addition, the bullpen is a mess and seems to have no real anchor, with closer Chris Reitsma providing as much direction and hope for success as Donald Rumsfeld. With pitching guru Leo Mazzone no longer around, it’s easy to worry that this might be the year the Braves stay home in October.

However, the Braves are generally slow starters and still have the pieces in place to make a run. 2B Marcus Giles (.211/.302/.316), 1B Adam LaRoche (.200/.327/.453) and Francoeur (.231/.241/.415) figure to be much better than they have been thus far and with the Jones boys returning to health and the rotation rounding into shape, this team can easily run off an 8 game winning streak at any time. Bobby Cox, who is perhaps the most underrated manager in the history of the game, always finds a way to rally this team into position to win and this year should be no different. GM John Schuerholz always makes a move or two near the deadline to address the team’s weaknesses. They’ll be right there with the Mets and Phillies at the end of the year.

2006-05-27T09:58:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, May 03, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 5/3/06 Edition

The Sad and Sordid Life of Steve Howe

This past Friday, former Dodger reliever Steve Howe died tragically in a single car accident at the age of 48.

While one wishes there was a feeling of shock upon hearing the news, the sad thing is that most just thought, “Well, that figures.”

Howe’s battles with drugs and alcohol are well documented. In the 80’s, he became somewhat of a poster child for baseball’s drug problem, particularly cocaine.

Howe was drafted by the Dodgers in the first round of the 1979 draft out of the University of Michigan. Spending just half a season at Double-A San Antonio, Howe won a spot in the Dodger bullpen in 1980, recording 17 saves on his way to winning the N.L Rookie of the Year award (the 2nd in a string of 4 straight Dodgers to take home the honor). Howe was an integral part in L.A. winning the 1981 World Series.

Then the problems started. After the 1982 season, Howe entered a drug rehabilitation program. In late June of 1983, he was fined one month’s salary and placed on probation by the Dodgers after admitting to having a drug problem. Twice more that season, Howe would be suspended for reporting late to a game and missing a team flight. Both times, Howe admitted to having a problem. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn subsequently suspended Howe for the 1984 season.

From a personal perspective, being 11 years old, it was the first time I heard about the evils of drugs and the way they could turn your icons into sand. I knew Howe was a great reliever and the Dodgers needed him. It was difficult for me to understand why someone with so much talent seemed so willing to throw it all away for something as harmful as cocaine. To me, Steve Howe was a better spokesperson for the anti-drug movement than Nancy Reagan and ALF could ever dream of being.

As much as you wanted to damn him, though, you couldn’t help but root for him to get it together. It wasn’t from the selfish standpoint of hoping he could clean up and help the Dodgers. Howe epitomized everything that was wrong with drugs. Unfortunately, the evils of cocaine seemed to win out as Howe’s career was littered by suspensions and even a ban for life (that lasted one season) before he finally finished his career in 1996. Problems still followed Howe after his career was over, as he was critically injured in 1999 in a motorcycle accident in which he was charged with drunk driving. The charges were later dropped, but a couple years later he was removed as a volunteer coach for his daughter’s softball program due to alcohol issues.

Recently, though, it seemed Howe had somewhat pulled his act together, avoiding any kind of trouble in the last seven years. "I just saw Steve last winter when his son was pitching against my son," former teammate and Angels manager Mike Scioscia said Friday night to the Associated Press. "Everything was looking up for him and he looked great. It makes you numb when you hear about a situation like this. He had a roller-coaster ride."

When I was young, I wanted Howe to get his act together to help the Dodgers. As an adult, I hope he got his act together for the sake of his wife and children, who didn’t ask for the albatross their father’s addictions brought upon them. While it is easy to condemn Howe and dismiss him as just another stupid person who used drugs and not deserving of any sort of compassion for bringing on his own problems, his life and career illustrate how destructive drugs can be to someone who was so talented and by all accounts, a good human being. So if his real contribution to the world was not helping pitch a major league team to a World Championship, but serving as an example to not just budding athletes but people in general, then his truly will not have been a wasted life.

John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.net

2006-05-27T09:56:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, April 26, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 4/26/06 Edition

Nothing but Jam Shots: The Dodgers traded Cody Ross to the Cincinnati Reds for a player to be named later. I guess keeping two light hitting middle infielders (Oscar Robles and Ramon Martinez) made more sense than a power hitting OF with great plate discipline who happen to be coming off the game of his career…

Lance Carter’s occupation of a roster spot and a place in the Dodger bullpen is a glowing example of the pitfalls of basing roster decisions on spring training performances. Carter had a great spring, carrying a 1.29 ERA in 14 spring innings. Lost in that was the fact that Carter’s performance came mainly against minor league players and non-roster invitees trying to make their team...

Meanwhile, Jonathan Broxton hasn’t allowed an earned run in 9 innings at AAA Las Vegas, striking out 15. This is another Carter administration Torosian won’t be sad to see come to an end...

Going into Monday, the Giants and the Rockies were tied for the NL West lead while the Detroit Tigers were only half a game out in the AL Central. This is another reason why it’s ridiculous for announcers to constantly update scores of interdivisional opponents during games in April. Save the every inning play-by-play for August…

If the Dodgers are going to run off a winning streak, now is as good a time as any. After getting by Andy Pettite and the Astros on Monday, the Dodgers face a pretty weak line of starting pitchers the rest of the week: Fernando Nieve, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Young, Clay Hensley and Chan Ho Park don’t inspire much fear in opposing batters…

Attention all Fantasy baseball players in keeper leagues: Angel prospect and future stud 2B Howie Kendrick was called up Monday to take Macier Izturis’s spot on the roster. He may not play much this year, but stash him away anyway when the Adam Kennedy era ends after this season…

The Angels didn’t have a left-handed, regular member of their bullpen the last couple years. This offseason, they acquired J.C. Romero from the Minnesota Twins. Credit manager Mike Scioscia for playing into the lefty-righty matchups and going with the best pitcher in given situations rather than being preoccupied with what hand they threw with. He uses Romero consistently not because he’s a lefty, but because he can get guys out, regardless of what side of the plate they hit from…

Angel 1B Casey Kotchman has struggled out of the gate, putting up a line of .155/.210/.172/.382 (for future reference, that’s BA/OBP/SLG/OPS). If this slump had come in July, it probably wouldn’t stir the panic among Angel faithful. Some have called for Darin Erstad to move back to first, but Scioscia has wisely held off. Kotchman will be fine…

If you head to Anaheim this week, How are some local boys doing? Ryan Tucker (Temple City) is 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA in 3 starts at Single A Greensboro. Chuck Tiffany (Charter Oak) is 0-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 3 starts for AA Montgomery. Ed Clelland (Arcadia) is 0-1 with a 19.29 ERA in 3 appearances for the Single A Lakeland Tigers. John Grabow (San Gabriel) has no record with a 6.75 ERA pitching out of the Pittsburgh Pirate bullpen. Henry Barrera (Rosemead) and Trevor Bell (Crescenta Valley) have yet to make their 2006 debuts.

John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.net

2006-05-27T09:48:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 4/19 Edition

Given that the Dodgers will have at least 376 injuries this year, it’s probably a good time to get acquainted with the organization’s vaunted minor league prospects. Ceiling indicates which player the prospect is comparable to in a best case scenario. Basement indicates which player they are comparable to in a worse case scenario.

James Loney- 1B (currently w/ Los Angeles)

Loney was the Dodgers #1 pick in 2002 and there was a debate whether he should be a hitter or a pitcher. The hitting proponents won out and Loney settled in and had a monstrous half season in rookie ball. The problem with Loney is that he hasn’t shown any power in any of his minor league stops. Scouts have said his line drive ability will eventually translate into home runs, but how often do you hear that and how often does it really happen? As a defender, there are very few peers to Loney, as his glove is major league ready. He has handled himself well since being called up, but he really needs at least a full season at AAA Las Vegas.

Upside: J.T. Snow Downside: Todd Benzinger

Russell Martin- C (AAA Las Vegas)

Martin, converted from 3B to catcher before 2003, is considered one of the jewels of the system and along with current starter, Dioner Navarro, makes the Dodgers feel very comfortable with their future behind the dish. Martin displays a good command of the strike zone at the plate, good power for a catcher and the ability to swipe a bag as well (15 last season). He has a strong throwing arm and handles pitchers well. If the Dodgers wanted to press the issue, he’d probably do a decent enough job, but with Navarro in place, there’s no need to rush him.

Upside: Jason Kendall Downside: Terry Steinbach

Chad Billingsley- SP (AAA Las Vegas)

Billingsley is the most touted pitching prospect to come through the system since Pedro Martinez. Now, if Ned Colletti deals him for Jose Vidro, then the Dodgers will officially give L.A. to the Angels. Billingsley does everything well. He strikes out a ton of guys, doesn’t walk too many and keeps the ball in the ballpark. If the current rotation’s woes continue, don’t be shocked to see Billingsley plugged into the rotation with either Brett Tomko or Jae Seo sent to the bullpen. This is someone to get excited about.

Upside: Mark Prior (without the injuries) Downside: Kevin Gross

Jonathan Broxton- RP (AAA Las Vegas)

The Bull had a cup of coffee with the big club last year and his highlight was striking out Albert Pujols…twice. He had some control issues during his call-up, which may have shown he wasn’t quite ready. However, he has had a K/BB ratio of better than 3 to 1 the last couple seasons after successfully being converted from starting to relieving. Checking in at 6’4 and 250 lbs, he has been clocked at 99 MPH. The problem is that reading has come from his fastball and his race to the post-game buffet. If he can keep his weight under control, he will be dominant. As it stands, he’s certainly better than most of the options currently occupying space in the Dodger bullpen.

Upside: Brad Lidge Downside: Duaner Sanchez

Andy LaRoche- 3B (AA Jacksonville)

Son of former major league pitcher Dave and brother of current Atlanta 1B Adam, LaRoche is the Dodgers’ best 3B prospect since Adrian Beltre. That doesn’t mean L.A. fans will be treated to years of flailing at pitches outside the zone, one huge season and then a dash for cash from LaRoche (I wonder if Torosian still laments the fact the Dodgers didn’t back the Brinks truck up to Beltre). A converted SS, LaRoche has handled 3B decently and hit 30 homers at 2 minor league stops last year. He has great plate discipline, a trait that generally a player retains as they develop, and figures to be on the fast track to L.A. Bill Mueller is signed through 2007, so the Dodgers have no reason to rush LaRoche, but if Mueller ages very quickly in 2006, they won’t hesitate to call him up.

Upside: Troy Glaus Downside: Todd Zeile

Joel Guzman- SS, 3B, LF, RF, ? (AAA Las Vegas)

The Dodgers aren’t really sure where to put the 6’5 200 lb. Guzman, but the path of least resistance is probably the OF, where he started playing this spring. His athleticism allows him to play pretty much anywhere, though, and he will excel regardless of where he ends up. Offensively, he has shown improved plate discipline and great power numbers coming through the system. Manager Grady Little toyed with the idea of Guzman breaking camp with the big club this year, but wisely left him at Las Vegas.

Upside: Miguel Cabrera Downside: Cory Snyder

2006-05-27T09:46:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Scanning the Majors: 4/12/06 Edition

The Gagne Fallout

Chicken Littles ran rampant this week when it was disclosed that Dodger closer Eric Gagne would have surgery to repair a nerve in the same elbow area he has had surgery on twice previously.

Now, Gagne is one of the top three closers in baseball and his loss is certainly a blow to the Dodgers. In reality, though, he is a one-inning guy (at best) these days and to pretend someone who impacts one-ninth of the game can end your season is an extreme overreaction. Additionally, the Dodgers said after the surgery that he looks to be back within 4-6 weeks. It would be better to err on the side of caution and give him at least two months, which would mean Gagne could miss about 25 innings while he is injured, or about 6% of the innings the Dodgers will play during that span.

Off-season acquisition Danys Baez will fill in while Gagne is out. The main problem stemming from this will be who takes on the set-up role now that Baez is closing. Watch for a mix and match of lefty Hong Chih-Kuo (who was touching 99 MPH in Philadelphia this past weekend), Yhency Brazoban and maybe Jonathan Broxton, who currently is toiling at Las Vegas.

Jam Shots: People have been waiting for it, but this could be the year the Braves finally end their string of 14 consecutive division crowns. The bullpen is in shambles, with closer Chris Reitsma blowing one save Sunday while doing everything he could to blow another on Opening Day vs. the Dodgers.

Tim Hudson doesn’t resemble anything close to what he was in Oakland and the offense is the Jones Boys or bust. Of course, the Mets and Phillies have their own issues and the NL East could resemble last year’s NL West when all is said and done.

Jim Tracy found his first week in Pittsburgh to be particularly difficult, losing the first five before beating Cincinnati on Sunday. Credit Tracy for going against the book (for once) in that game. In the 8th inning, with the heart of the Reds lineup coming up, he sent his closer (and best reliever) Mike Gonzalez out to pitch and let Roberto Hernandez face the bottom of the order in the ninth for the save. Too often, managers save their best relievers for situations that never come instead of using them in situations where they are needed.

There is concern in Anaheim as reigning Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon was struggling to reach 90 MPH against the Yankees on Sunday. He gave up seven earned runs in two innings of work and the scoreboard operator shut off the radar gun readings after the first inning.

Heralded Dodger prospect James Loney, brought up to play 1B while Nomar Garciaparra nurses his first of many injuries, has looked as good as advertised defensively and has held his own at the plate (.316 through Sunday). The concern about Loney is that he won’t hit for enough power to play 1B in the majors. Hand and wrist injuries have hindered him from putting up power numbers in the minors, but some scouts think he’ll develop into a 25 HR player.

The Colorado Rockies must have thought they were in hitter-friendly Coors Field rather than hitter-hell Petco Park this weekend, as they scored 32 runs in sweeping the Padres. San Diego has to feel a little jittery, as they were relying on their pitching and their ballpark to be competitive this season.

Barry Bonds struggled out of the gate, getting no HRs or RBI through the team’s first six games. Almost as weak as that performance is Bonds new reality show, “Bonds on Bonds” on ESPN. The network turned over all control of the show’s content to Bonds and his entourage. So we get to see real exciting stuff like Bonds hanging out in his kitchen. What will ESPN show next, Manny Ramirez doing his laundry?

John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.

2006-05-27T09:43:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Scanning the Majors

Every baseball fan grows up believing there are certain truths about the game. However, baseball is not immune to old wives tales and this week, I look at five myths that are commonly (and falsely) accepted as facts in baseball.

1) Sacrifice bunting or moving runners along with a groundball improves a team’s chances of scoring.
How many times do you watch a game and hear the announcer drool all over themselves when there is a runner on second and a player hits a groundball to second base? Or drops a bunt down to get a runner into scoring position? We get to hear what a great fundamental play this is.
This is probably the most widespread and commonly believed myth about baseball. The reality is, statistically, a team’s chances of scoring goes down when a team gives up an out to move a runner over one base. Outs are the most precious commodity in baseball and to waste one to gain ninety feet, it turns out, is foolish.
According to the 2005 Baseball Prospectus, based on numbers from 2004, a team could expect to score .93 runs when there was a runner on first with no outs. With a runner on second and one out, a team can expect to score .71 runs. So the amount of runs a team can expect to score actually decreases with a sacrifice bunt. Hitting a groundball to the right side with a runner on second? Before the out, a team could expect to score 1.16 runs. After the out, it goes down to .97.
To study this further would require more time than I can give to one column, so moving along…

2) Wins and saves are an effective stat in measuring a pitcher’s value.
When the talking heads on baseball wrap-up shows are trying to analyze a pitcher’s ability, invariably they bring up “wins” and “saves”.
The complete random prerequisites for these stats make them a less than reliable tool in trying to gauge a pitcher’s worth. Theoretically, a pitcher can give up six runs in five innings and get a win if his team has scored seven for him before he departs and his bullpen doesn’t blow it. Conversely, a pitcher can give up one unearned run on a couple of errors and pick up a loss if his team’s offense is shut out. So, pitcher A is a “better” pitcher than pitcher B? Hardly.
In order to record a save, a pitcher must come into a game with a lead of three runs or less and record three outs before giving up the lead. So, a pitcher can come into a game with a two run lead, give up a home run and walk the bases loaded before getting three outs and get a “save” while having put together an ERA of nine and allowing four base runners in an inning?
All too often, general managers spend big money on pitchers because they rack up the glamour stats of wins or saves when they should instead be looking at their peripheral numbers, like walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed. These stats are all well within the control of the pitcher.

3) Closers should only pitch the ninth inning.
It’s the bottom of the seventh and the Giants have the bases loaded and the Dodgers are up 3-2. With the game in balance, do you go to pitcher A or pitcher B?
(using 2004 stats)
Pitcher A: 2.18 ERA, 3.35 BB/8 K/ per 9 IP
Pitcher B: 2.19 ERA, 2.4 BB/12.5 K/ per 9 IP
Pitcher B gives you the best chance of getting out of the inning, right? Well, pitcher A was Giovanni Carrara and Pitcher B was Eric Gagne. Every manager in baseball does it. They save their best pitcher for a situation that may not come because it fits into a stat (saves). Common sense says you would want to get your team out of that situation and the best way to go about that would be to use your best pitcher, doesn’t it?

4) A hitter who strikes out a lot is not very good.
Adam Dunn of the Cincinnati Reds struck out 168 times last year. So he must have stunk up the joint, right? Hardly.
Between strikeouts, Dunn got on base 248 times while hitting 40 HRs. So while it would be ideal for Dunn to make more contact, is it worth having him shorten up his swing so he could pop up or ground out rather than striking out. Players like Dunn are a high risk-high reward proposition, particularly when they can get on base as well as he does.

5) You need defense up the middle to win.
This is a myth that is from a bygone era. Nowadays, you cannot sacrifice offense to get a better defender in the lineup. Very few defenders are able to make up defensively for what they lack offensively. The difference between a good defender and a bad defender is somewhere in the neighborhood of an error every week or two, which may allow an extra couple runs. The difference offensively is probably somewhere around 4-5 runs. Ozzie Smith hit enough to justify his glove, but if he got on base at a .300 pace, his defense would have hardly been worth it.
Next week: NL West preview

John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.net

2006-05-27T09:42:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Scanning the Majors

National League West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (71-91, 4th in the NL West, 11 GB in 2005)

Key additions: Rafael Furcal, ss; Nomar Garciaparra, 1b(?); Bill Mueller 3b; Kenny Lofton, cf; Danys Baez, rhp; Brett Tomko, rhp; Jae Seo, rhp; Grady Little, manager.
Key losses: Jim Tracy, manager; Milton Bradley, of; Jeff Weaver, rhp; Duaner Sanchez, rhp.

Having lost 1357 player-days to the disabled list in 2005, GM Paul Depodesta was fired for not having the foresight to know that everyone would be injured, allowing Tracy to play Jason Phillips at first instead of Hee Seop Choi and not hanging out with Tommy Lasorda. To restore Dodger tradition and pride, owner Frank McCourt hired former Giant Asst. GM Ned Colletti as general manager and Red Sox exile Grady Little as manager.

What Can Go Right: No one gets injured.

What Can Go Wrong: Everyone gets injured.

Outlook: Should this team be ravaged by injury again, at least the loaded minor league system is a year closer to being ready to sep in. Colletti did a good job in the limited time he had of assembling a roster that can be competitive in the very weak NL West. 86 wins gets it done and LA should be able to get there. (Note: An expanded preview of the Dodgers will appear next week)

2. San Diego Padres (82-80, 1st in NL West, Lost in NLDS)

Key additions: Mike Cameron, cf; Vinny Castilla, 3b; Mike Piazza, c; Chris Young, rhp; Doug Mirabelli, c; Adrian Gonzalez, 1b
Key losses: Mark Loretta, 2b; Ramon Hernandez, c; Adam Eaton, rhp; Brian Lawrence, rhp; Akinoro Otsuka, rhp; Chris Hammond, lhp; Joe Randa, 3b

The Padres won by default in 2005 as they barely squeaked over .500 to take the NL West crown. This year’s team provides an interesting mix of younger players and veterans as GM Kevin Towers wasn’t fooled by last year’s “success” and re-tooled the team.

What Can Go Right: Young steps in for Eaton and provides a similar performance and ace Jake Peavy stays healthy for an entire season.

What Can Go Wrong: Brian Giles has no one else in the lineup who can get on base around him. No one steps up to replace Otsuka’s valuable set-up work and age finally catches up to closer Trevor Hoffman.

Outlook: San Diego will be an intriguing team to watch this year, as they could settle anywhere between 75 and 85 wins. The more likely bet is 82, which would be enough to keep them nipping on the Dodgers’ heels until late September.

3. Colorado Rockies (67-95, 5th place in NL West, 15 GB)

Key additions: Jose Mesa, rhp; Ray King, lhp; Yorvit Torrealba, c; Keiichi Yabu, rhp
Key losses: Dustan Mohr, of; Jamey Wright, rhp;

The Rockies spent 2005 looking relatively lost, but showed some life near the end of the season, compiling the best record in the NL West (30-28) after August 1st.

What Can Go Right: They build on the momentum of finishing 2005 decently and the newly found confidence springs them toward a more respectable 2006.

What Can Go Wrong: The young players they are relying on (Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Ryan Shealy, Jeff Francis, Clint Barmes) don’t remain healthy or are otherwise devoured by the laborious task of playing 81 games at Coors Field.

Outlook: The Rockies will be an interesting team to follow in 2006 and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them put up an 81 win season, which would be enough to have them thinking about a division crown in September for the first time in a long while in Denver. Trading Todd Helton while he has max value would certainly help this franchise move forward.

4. San Francisco Giants (75-87, 3rd in NL West, 7 GB)

Key additions: Matt Morris, rhp; Steve Finley, of; Steve Kline, lhp; Tim Worrell, rhp; Mark Sweeney, inf-of;
Key losses: Edgardo Alfonso, 3b; Brett Tomko, rhp; J.T. Snow, 1b; LaTroy Hawkins, rhp; Scott Eyre, lhp.

Barry Bonds wasn’t healthy and the Giants showed they cannot win without him. The Padres’ ineptitude had the Bay Area dreaming of a triumphant return by Barry to lead them to a division crown. What they failed to see was 63-year old Jeff Fassero making starts down the stretch as well and predictably, SF fell short.

What Can Go Right: Noah Lowry continues to develop into the next Tom Glavine.

What Can Go Wrong: Omar Vizquel, Moises Alou, Mike Matheny and Armando Benitez continue their precipitous downturn as they age. Bonds, dogged by knee problems and the steroid scandal that he can’t shake, decides enough is enough and limps away from baseball.

Outlook: No Bonds, no wins. This is a team looking down the barrel at a 68-70 win season.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks (77-85, 2nd in NL West, 5 GB)

Key additions: Orlando Hernandez, rhp; Orlando Hudson, 2b; Johnny Estrada, c; Eric Byrnes, cf; Miguel Batista, rhp; Luis Vizcaino, rhp;
Key losses: Troy Glaus, 3b; Javier Vazquez, rhp; Tim Worrell, rhp; Shawn Estes, lhp

Arizona transitioned from 111 losses in 2004 to a 26 game improvement in 2005. They spent a ton of money to do it, though, and in the grand scheme of things, they still finished eight games under .500. New GM Josh Byrnes (no relation to new OF Eric) comes over from Boston where he served under the tutelage of Red Sox icon Theo Epstein.

What Can Go Right: Russ Ortiz does his Moses impression and wanders the Arizona desert, never finding the mound at Bank One Ballpark.

What Can Go Wrong: The pitching staff (aside from Brandon Webb) is as bad as it looks on paper, Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green continue the steep decline in performance in conjunction with their age and rookie Conor Jackson can’t handle 1B every day.

Outlook: This team doesn’t look any better than last year’s 77-85 team and could actually be worse. It will be a long haul for GM Byrnes, but he seems to be a sure bet to get this franchise back on track. However, a last place finish with 65 wins isn’t out of the realm of possibility for 2006.

2006-05-27T09:38:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Scanning the Majors

2006 AL West Preview (teams listed in order of projected finish):

1. Oakland A’s (88-74, 2nd in AL West, 7 GB in 2005)

Key additions: OF Milton Bradley, SP Esteban Loaiza, IF Antonio Perez, DH Frank Thomas
Key losses: RP Octavio Dotel, DH Erubiel Durazo

The A’s were expected to be in rebuilding mode in 2005 after trading star pitchers Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. However, after May 30th, the A’s had the best record in baseball with a 71-42 mark and surprisingly stayed in contention well into September. Having lost no one of any real significance in the off-season, the A’s are poised to regain the AL West title that has slipped through their hands and into Anaheim’s the last couple seasons.

What Can Go Right: Oakland has arguably the best pitching staff in the AL, anchored by former Cy Young Award winner Barry Zito. Zito is flanked by future ace Rich Harden, Dan Haren, free agent signee Esteban Loaiza and Joe Blanton. The bullpen features AL Rookie of the Year Huston Street, who recorded 23 saves and Justin Duchscherer, who parlayed a superb set-up performance into his first career All-Star performance. The offense loses no one from a lineup that was 6th in the AL in runs scored and adds Bradley while young slugger Dan Johnson finally has a full-time gig.

What Can Go Wrong: The A’s struggle out of the gate, forcing GM Billy Beane to consider moving Zito. Harden’s health issues re-emerge, C Jason Kendall continues his Rafael Belliard-like performance and Thomas lives up to his nickname “The Big Hurt”…in a negative way.

Outlook: There’s no reason why this team can’t win at least 95 games and run away with the division.

2. Texas Rangers (79-83, 3rd in AL West, 16 GB)

Key additions: SP Kevin Millwood, OF Brad Wilkerson, SP Vicente Padilla, SP Adam Eaton, RP Akinori Otsuka
Key losses: SP Kenny Rogers, 2B Alfonso Soriano

It was the same old story in Arlington last year: Score a ton of runs, only to allow two tons. New GM Jon Daniels wasted no time overhauling the pitching staff with ERA champion Millwood and Eaton, who seems primed for a big year and deepening the bullpen by adding Otsuka. Daniels did all of this without breaking up the potent offense and as a bonus, jettisoned chronic pouter Soriano.

What Can Go Right: The Rangers finally get some decent pitching to go with their offensive attack and challenge the A’s for the division as well as the AL East powers for the wild card.

What Can Go Wrong: Pitching in the Texas summer heat drains the starting staff, rookie 2B Ian Kinsler isn’t ready and manager Buck Showalter goes back to ESPN to ensure we all fall asleep watching Baseball Tonight.

Outlook: The Rangers win 88-90 games, but fall short of making the postseason. Fans will have the pleasure of watching young superstar Mark Teixeira, even if they can’t spell his name (it is Texas after all).

3. Anaheim Angels (95-67, 1st in AL West, lost in ALCS)

Key Additions: RP Hector Carrasco, IF Edgardo Alfonso, SP Jeff Weaver
Key Losses: SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Paul Byrd, C Bengie Molina, OF Steve Finley

The Angels rode a dominant performance by their starting pitching to the division crown in 2005, overcoming an anemic offense that doesn’t look much improved for 2006.

What Can Go Right: OF Garrett Anderson regains his form of two years ago, the pitching staff repeats its performance from last year, 2005 Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon stays under 300 lbs. and youngsters 1B Casey Kotchman and 3B Dallas Macpherson reach their potential earlier than expected.

What Can Go Wrong: Manager Mike Scioscia follows through on his threat to hit CF Darin Erstad fifth, Scott Shields’s arm falls off from overuse and Vlad Guerrero degenerative back condition finally manifests itself.

Outlook: The Angels simply will not hit enough to support the pitching staff. An 81-81 season is not out of the question.

4. Seattle Mariners (69-93, 4th in AL West, 26 GB)

Key Additions: OF Carl Everett, C Kenji Johjima, OF Matt Lawton and SP Jarrod Washburn, 1B Roberto Petagine
Key Losses: SP Ryan Franklin

The Mariners never got in sync last year, struggling both offensively and on the mound. 3B Adrian Beltre proved to be the biggest bust of the free agent market. $17 mil got the Mariners 19 homers, a .303 OBP and a .413 SLG%. It’s amazing hearing some Dodger fans still voice disappointment that L.A. didn’t resign him.

What Can Go Right: Johjima’s successful adjustment to the majors gives Seattle another Japanese superstar to go with OF Ichiro Suzuki. Beltre regains some semblance of what the Mariners thought he would be when they signed him. 1B Richie Sexson has another monster year. SP Gil Meche finally lives up to his potential, SP Joel Piniero rediscovers his touch and Washburn doesn’t go in the tank.

What Can Go Wrong: Washburn has that one disaster of a year that always seems to be coming, Beltre continues to remind everyone of Tony Batista and Everett, in an AL West rivalry, tries to out-ballistic Milton Bradley.

Outlook: Seattle flirts with .500 all year, falling just short with 78 wins.

By John Scanlan

2006-05-27T09:30:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, March 01, 2006
Scanning the Majors

The World Baseball Classic is ready to exhilarate and thrill baseball fans. This huge event will thrust baseball onto the world stage, showcase the greatest players around today and increase the sport’s popularity ten-fold.

At least that’s how Commissioner Bud Selig has it playing out in his own little dream world.

The other day, I turned to Scanwife and asked her if she was looking forward to the WBC. She gave me a look as empty as a Jose Valentin swing.

Now, I like to consider myself pretty well versed in Major League Baseball and fairly current on its happenings. Even so, until a few days ago, I had no clue when (or where…or why) the WBC was taking place. I knew it was sometime before the beginning of the regular season. Past that, I had no clue.

Truth be told, I didn’t really care.

The pitch (which is about as effective as a Giovanni Carrara offering) being made is that we will be seeing dream match-ups like the U.S.’s Roger Clemens hooking up with Dominican Vladimir Guerrero with national pride on the line. However, it’s more likely we’ll see Italy’s Jason Simontacchi staring down the Netherlands’s very own Randall Simon (finally, Italy can get some revenge for Simon’s uncalled for assault on an Italian sausage during the famous sausage races in Milwaukee a couple seasons ago!)

Although no one will admit it, the WBC stems from baseball being dropped by the Olympics. This forced attempt to create a tournament where national pride is supposedly on the line has been a disaster from the beginning. When MLB announced the WBC during last season’s All-Star game, it was met with a collective sigh from the baseball community.

Wouldn’t it be great to watch Eric Gagne, Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Lance Berkman, Tim Hudson, Roy Halladay and Eric Chavez? Sorry, they won’t be there. Many of the big stars that were to be showcased have let it be known they want no part of it.

The players’ rationale is that their first responsibility is to the team that pays them their salary and they need to use Spring Training (which, as it turns out, is when the games are being played) to get ready for the grueling 162-game season. Piling on an additional 15 games in addition to any potential postseason games could push some players near the 200-game plateau. In this day and age when players are multi-million dollar commodities, it isn’t a gamble worth taking for an event that really doesn’t mean anything when it’s all said and done.

The major misstep made by MLB was failing to realize that the Olympics are prestigious for a reason: Because they are the Olympics. The WBC is nothing more than a concoction reminiscent of Vince McMahon’s XFL. Remember the XFL? That’s my point.

So if you really want to watch Puerto Rico’s Jose Cruz Jr. lock horns with Canada’s Rheal “Deal” Cormier and can’t wait until June 1st (when the Dodgers and Phillies meet up at the Ravine), I’m sure you can find some information online somewhere or by flipping through the pages of the Pennysaver. Don’t look to me though. I know as much about the WBC as Selig does about marketing the game.

Jam Shots: Angel manager Mike Scioscia has stated he plans to hit Darin Erstad in the fifth spot this upcoming season. In 2005, Erstad posted a .325 OBP and .371 SLG%. As a comparison, Dodger utility guy Oscar Robles had a .332 OBP and .368 SLG%. So basically, the Angels have Robles hitting fifth for them this year. It’ll be interesting to see if Erstad is still hailed as a “gamer” and Scioscia a genius by Angel fans when they’re averaging two runs a game this season…The Dodgers will give super-prospect Joel Guzman some time at 1B, 3B and the corner OF positions this spring. The 21-year old Guzman has been a SS throughout his career in the system, but some in the organization feel his 6’6, 225 lb. frame will hinder his ability to effectively play short and that his long-term position is elsewhere.

John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.net

2006-05-27T09:24:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, February 22, 2006
Scanning the Majors

As the Dodgers broke camp this week, here are the top five questions the team faces heading into Spring Training:

1. Is closer/Cy Young award winner/fan favorite/filthy-capped Canadian Eric Gagne healthy?

The last time Dodger fans saw Gagne on the mound June 12th, he was finishing off his fifth straight scoreless appearance on the way to his eighth save of the season. Next thing you know, Gagne went under the knife to fix a sprained ligament in his right elbow, the Dodgers lost 8 games in a row and the season rolled downhill from there. Thankfully, the injury didn’t require Tommy John surgery (as was first feared), allowing Gagne to come to Spring Training with a relative clean bill of health. The early returns are good, as he threw this past week and reported no pain. If Gagne were to have a recurrence of his injury, the Dodgers have newly acquired Danys Baez, who comes over from Tampa Bay with the “proven closer” label that puts people with concerns about Gagne at ease. Such a recurrence, though, would push everyone in the bullpen out of their roles, a problem that plagued L.A. last year. While it may be an overstatement to imply that as Gagne goes, so goes the Dodger season, his return is imperative to the Dodgers having a good season.

2. Can the Dodgers stay healthy?

The team’s biggest downfall came last year when they lost more than a thousand combined games to the disabled list. An initial look at the newly acquired players is cause for concern. New first baseman Nomar Garciaparra has missed substantial parts of the last two seasons with wrist, groin and Achilles’ tendon issues. Third baseman Bill Mueller and center fielder Kenny Lofton are 34 and 38, respectively. Shortstop Rafael Furcal is coming off arthroscopic knee surgery. New backup catcher Sandy Alomar Jr. collects Medicare. The holdovers have issues as well. Second base Jeff Kent had minor wrist surgery and will be 38 come March. Right fielder J.D. Drew is still, well….J.D. Drew. Ricky Ledee is coming off hamstring problems, starting pitcher Brad Penny is still questionable after the bicep nerve issues that plagued him parts of the last two seasons and Odalis Perez missed time with shoulder soreness. Throw shortstop Cesar Izturis’s Tommy John surgery into the mix and team doctors could be logging as much overtime in ’06 as they did in ’05.

3. What will the team chemistry be like after all the changes this off-season?

Sound familiar? It’s funny that this concern hasn’t dogged L.A. this year as it did last year. I guess that’s what not being Paul Depodesta will do for you. They have a new first baseman (Garciaparra, who’s really a SS), shortstop (Furcal), third baseman (Mueller), center fielder (Lofton) and set-up man (Baez), a semi-new left fielder (Jose Cruz Jr.), two new starting pitchers (Brett Tomko and Jae Seo), a new coaching staff and a new manager in Grady Little. Winning breeds chemistry, so if this team gets out to a good start, the issue of chemistry will be all but forgotten. If they falter, chemistry will suddenly become an issue. Isn’t it funny how that works?

4. Can Little shake the Pedro Martinez incident and guide the team to a division title?

Little is as likeable a guy as you’ll come across in baseball and in spite of his Forrest Gump-like drawl, still sounds intelligent when compared to former Dodger manager Jim Tracy. Little is unfairly marked by one decision he made while managing the Boston Red Sox in the 2003 ALCS when he left Martinez in too long against the New York Yankees in Game Seven. Never mind the fact that there weren’t many quality options in the Boston bullpen at the time, “Grady” is still considered a cuss word in the Northeast because of this decision. The L.A. media and fans won’t be nearly as harsh on him and he should be given plenty of chances to redefine his managing career.

5. Will Hee Seop Choi ever be given a chance to play?

OK, this is more of a self-indulgent question, but what does he have to do to get 500 plate appearances? Pretend he spent ten years in the minors, get a “prettier” swing and change his name to Lo Duca?

By John Scanlan

John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.ne

2006-05-27T09:08:00.000Z

Published: Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Scanning the Majors

Welcome to Scanning the Majors. Each week, I’ll be taking a look at the Major League Baseball scene with an emphasis on the local teams. This week, we spotlight a couple trades the Dodgers made this offseason.

And Seo It Goes
The Dodgers traded relievers Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll to the New York Mets for starter Jae Seo and reliever Tim Hamulack,
It’s always good to acquire a guy who throws 6-7 innings for one who throws 1, sometimes 2. Starters are harder to come by than relievers generally and while Sanchez has decent upside, this move allows the Dodgers to be more patient with Billingsley, Miller, et al. D.J. Houlton moves to the pen as the "swing man" or AAA Las Vegas to get some starts in. In addition, picking up Hamuluck makes it less likely that the very talented, yet injury prone Hong-Chih Kuo will be rushed.
The move also ensured that Jeff Weaver wouldn't be getting a $9-10 million dollar paycheck from the Dodgers for the next 3 to 4 seasons, allowing for resources to be used elsewhere. In turn, the Dodgers receive compensation picks that are contingent on what team Weaver signs with.

Sanchez and Schmoll have upside, but which Sanchez is real? The one who came on near the end of last season or the seemingly erratic aloof hurler who found the most inopportune times to melt down at times in 2005? His rising K rate makes some want to believe he's for real. Dodger fans may be afraid that he will turn into a dominant closer and bite the Dodgers in the behind. With Billy Wagner in front of him, though, the chance to do so won't be present.
All the money seems to cancel out, except Sanchez will get to arbitration quicker...but that's still a couple seasons off. A Gagne/Braz/Baez/Broxton/Osoria/Wunsch bullpen with Houlton and Hamulack on call at Vegas makes this as a low-risk/good reward type of move.

If Seo doesn't work out as a 5th starter, what's really been lost? I see Sanchez doing fine for the Mets and Seo working out for the Dodgers. Hopefully, if this happens, fans don't construe this as a bad trade, as the mindset generally seems to be that unless one side rips the other off, it's not a worthwhile move.

Baez Beware
The Dodgers traded promising young starters Edwin Jackson and Charter Oak’s Chuck Tiffany to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter.

Immediately, many will be enamored with Baez's 41 saves last year without realizing that all it takes to save a game is to pitch one inning without giving up one or two runs. His secondary numbers are nothing special, as in 2005 he averaged 6 K/3.75 BB/9 IP with an usually low 8 HA/9 IP for someone who doesn't blow hitters away. These numbers suggest that Baez has been very fortunate and is likely headed for a reversal of fortune. Carter is a non-factor and for all intents and purposes, a throw in.

Some could argue that a suitable option would have been to plug Jackson into the departed Sanchez's set up role with the thought that he could produce what Baez is now expected to. Jackson just doesn't have the sexy track record that Baez does.

If this trade was a poker hand, Baez is pocket jacks while Jackson/Tiffany is King-Queen suited. Baez is better now, but Jackson and Tiffany carry many more possibilities to win out in the long run. Colletti's in the lead now, but he has to dodge the flop, turn and river in order to win and that's a lot of bullets to weave through. Of course, when you have a lot of chips (prospects), you can gamble on marginal hands. It will be interesting to see if Baez, who surely doesn't want to set up heading into his free agent year, even stays in a Dodger uniform through spring training once closer Eric Gagne is given a clean bill of health.

By John Scanlan