| Every baseball fan grows up believing there are certain truths about the game. However, baseball is not immune to old wives tales and this week, I look at five myths that are commonly (and falsely) accepted as facts in baseball. |
1) Sacrifice bunting or moving runners along with a groundball improves a team’s chances of scoring.
How many times do you watch a game and hear the announcer drool all over themselves when there is a runner on second and a player hits a groundball to second base? Or drops a bunt down to get a runner into scoring position? We get to hear what a great fundamental play this is.
This is probably the most widespread and commonly believed myth about baseball. The reality is, statistically, a team’s chances of scoring goes down when a team gives up an out to move a runner over one base. Outs are the most precious commodity in baseball and to waste one to gain ninety feet, it turns out, is foolish.
According to the 2005 Baseball Prospectus, based on numbers from 2004, a team could expect to score .93 runs when there was a runner on first with no outs. With a runner on second and one out, a team can expect to score .71 runs. So the amount of runs a team can expect to score actually decreases with a sacrifice bunt. Hitting a groundball to the right side with a runner on second? Before the out, a team could expect to score 1.16 runs. After the out, it goes down to .97.
To study this further would require more time than I can give to one column, so moving along…
2) Wins and saves are an effective stat in measuring a pitcher’s value.
When the talking heads on baseball wrap-up shows are trying to analyze a pitcher’s ability, invariably they bring up “wins” and “saves”.
The complete random prerequisites for these stats make them a less than reliable tool in trying to gauge a pitcher’s worth. Theoretically, a pitcher can give up six runs in five innings and get a win if his team has scored seven for him before he departs and his bullpen doesn’t blow it. Conversely, a pitcher can give up one unearned run on a couple of errors and pick up a loss if his team’s offense is shut out. So, pitcher A is a “better” pitcher than pitcher B? Hardly.
In order to record a save, a pitcher must come into a game with a lead of three runs or less and record three outs before giving up the lead. So, a pitcher can come into a game with a two run lead, give up a home run and walk the bases loaded before getting three outs and get a “save” while having put together an ERA of nine and allowing four base runners in an inning?
All too often, general managers spend big money on pitchers because they rack up the glamour stats of wins or saves when they should instead be looking at their peripheral numbers, like walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed. These stats are all well within the control of the pitcher.
3) Closers should only pitch the ninth inning.
It’s the bottom of the seventh and the Giants have the bases loaded and the Dodgers are up 3-2. With the game in balance, do you go to pitcher A or pitcher B?
(using 2004 stats)
Pitcher A: 2.18 ERA, 3.35 BB/8 K/ per 9 IP
Pitcher B: 2.19 ERA, 2.4 BB/12.5 K/ per 9 IP
Pitcher B gives you the best chance of getting out of the inning, right? Well, pitcher A was Giovanni Carrara and Pitcher B was Eric Gagne. Every manager in baseball does it. They save their best pitcher for a situation that may not come because it fits into a stat (saves). Common sense says you would want to get your team out of that situation and the best way to go about that would be to use your best pitcher, doesn’t it?
4) A hitter who strikes out a lot is not very good.
Adam Dunn of the Cincinnati Reds struck out 168 times last year. So he must have stunk up the joint, right? Hardly.
Between strikeouts, Dunn got on base 248 times while hitting 40 HRs. So while it would be ideal for Dunn to make more contact, is it worth having him shorten up his swing so he could pop up or ground out rather than striking out. Players like Dunn are a high risk-high reward proposition, particularly when they can get on base as well as he does.
5) You need defense up the middle to win.
This is a myth that is from a bygone era. Nowadays, you cannot sacrifice offense to get a better defender in the lineup. Very few defenders are able to make up defensively for what they lack offensively. The difference between a good defender and a bad defender is somewhere in the neighborhood of an error every week or two, which may allow an extra couple runs. The difference offensively is probably somewhere around 4-5 runs. Ozzie Smith hit enough to justify his glove, but if he got on base at a .300 pace, his defense would have hardly been worth it.
Next week: NL West preview
John Scanlan can be reached at scanman_33@sbcglobal.net |
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